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Last Saturday's attack by Hamas out of Gaza has led many to wonder at the failure by the vaunted Israeli intelligence services to anticipate the violence. Successful strategic attacks do not just happen. They generally involve three key elements. All require months or years of preparation before conflict commences.
The first is to lull the enemy into a false sense of security. There is truth in the old western movie cliché, “It's too quiet out there.” Making the intended victim believe that his basic system of deterrence is working is generally critical for the surprise to be successful.
In 1973, both Egypt and Syria toned down their harsh rhetoric against israel in the months leading up to the Yom Kippur War. In 1941, the Japanese continued to negotiate with the Americans literally up to the day before the attack on Pearl Harbor. The Japanese Navy ceased most critical communications in the weeks leading up to the attack. What the Americans heard from Japanese naval radio stations were administrative communications indicating that most of the fleet was at home, when it was in fact sailing east in radio silence.
In the months leading up to last week's attack, several Israeli commentators…
