The message to NATO from President Vladimir Putin was simple and stark: Don’t go too far in providing military support for Ukraine, or you’ll risk a conflict with Russia that could quickly turn nuclear.
As the war in Ukraine turns slowly in Moscow’s favor, Putin declared he doesn’t need nuclear weapons to achieve his goals. But he also says it’s wrong for the West to assume that Russia will never use them.
“It mustn’t be treated in a light, superficial way,” Putin said in June, reaffirming that Russia’s nuclear doctrine calls for using atomic weapons if it perceives a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Moscow’s nuclear messaging — coming as NATO allies move to shore up exhausted and outgunned Ukrainian forces — heralds what could become the most dangerous phase in the war.
Drills, threats and signals
Moscow has carried out drills with its tactical — or battlefield — nuclear weapons in southern Russia and with ally Belarus, where some were deployed in 2023. Russian Defense Ministry videos showed Iskander missile launchers, nuclear-capable warplanes and sea-launched missiles.
The Kremlin described the exercises as a response to the West pondering the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to use longer-range weapons for limited strikes on Russian territory.
“Reliance on nuclear threats and signals is an enduring trend in Russia’s activities amid the war in Ukraine,”…
