Despite NATO’s elevated military spending and its positioning of troops further eastward and closer to Russia, Russia still has the edge in the event of a major conflict, the Swedish Defence Research Agency concluded after running simulations.
NATO has shortcomings in its preparedness: its member states don’t practice enough, while its forces are geographically dispersed and have very different military capabilities. All this means that Russia has an edge in the event of a large-scale war in Sweden’s immediate geopolitical neighbourhood, the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) has assessed in a report.
This conclusion was made despite NATO’s military re-assurance to other members and the historic relocation of forces to the Baltics and Poland, closer to Russia’s border, among other advantages. The movement of troops Eastward was started by US President Barack Obama and continued by Donald Trump, despite his critical statements about NATO, which he called obsolete.
Despite all these measures and budget hikes, Russia has a military edge, the FOI estimated.
FOI ran war simulations to assess NATO and their partners’ military balance of power in relation to Russia. These included simulations of Russian attacks on the Baltics through Belarus. The nuclear weapons of the US, France, the UK and Russia were not used in the simulations. However, they included nuclear threats, including against Sweden and Finland, to keep the two Nordic countries out of…