All the signs emerging from the annual Security Conference in Munich are that the US and the Taliban are perhaps just days away from announcing an agreement that could pave the way for peace talks between the Afghan parties themselves and the withdrawal of US troops from the country.
Washington's longest ever war could be coming to an end, and President Donald Trump – in a crucial re-election battle – may be able to make good on his promise to bring US troops home.
The stakes for the Trump administration and for the US are high.
Arguably the stakes for Afghanistan are even higher.
The very political future of the country is at stake. What system of government will ultimately triumph?
But before we get to any final settlement, many questions are already being raised.
Indeed – in a fundamental sense – what is actually being talked about here? Is this an all-encompassing peace deal for Afghanistan?
Or is this simply an agreement to allow the Americans to head for the exit?
It could be both. But equally it might be the latter rather than the former.
So far details of what has been decided are limited. But agreement seems tantalisingly close.
