At approximately 10:30 p.m. (GMT) on 7 January Iran launched ballistic missile strikes against US military and coalition forces in Iraq, the Pentagon reported later in the day. US military veteran and security analyst Mark Sleboda has outlined the possible scenarios in the wake of the attacks.
Tehran has confirmed that it conducted missile attacks on US targets calling them “proportionate measures in self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter” in response to a previous drone strike against Iranian “citizens and senior officials” in a clear reference to the assassination of Quds Commander Qasem Soleimani on 3 January near Baghdad International Airport.
”We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression”, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted in the aftermath of the shelling.
Scenario 1: US Accepts De-Escalation
“The retaliatory strike, at least this first one, by Iran against Iraqi military bases where the US military forces are present is a minimum response”, says Mark Sleboda, a US military veteran and international affairs and security analyst. “This was a symbolic strike. It was an escalation to de-escalate. These missiles were not supposed to cause any casualties. We haven't got a damage assessment yet but they were probably not even meant to cause significant damage”.
The military veteran highlights that Washington said that there were no American casualties and throws into doubt Iran's preliminary assessment that the…
